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淡水河谷事故持續發酵 國內鋼廠降低對高品位礦石依賴

發表時間: 2019-03-27 │ 點擊數: 

距離巴西淡水河谷某礦區1號壩潰壩事故發生已經整整兩個月,但余波未平。3月15日巴西Minas Gerais州法院又下令關停Timbopeba礦區1280萬噸產能。至此,淡水河谷在此次事件中受影響關停的產能達到8280萬噸。

近日雖然傳出淡水河谷Brucutu礦區被吊銷生產許可證的3000萬噸產能獲得批準重啟生產,但實際生產何時開始,淡水河谷官方并沒有給出一個明確的答案。鐵礦石價格則因為這一系列消息的反復而上下波動。

“目前來看,巴西淡水河谷潰壩的影響仍存,對于鐵礦石價格起到支撐作用。”王國清接受上證報記者采訪時表示,今年以來鐵礦石平均價格不低于80美元/噸,已經壓縮了下游鋼鐵企業的利潤。一季度鋼廠盈利空間收窄100元/噸左右。

監測數據顯示,普氏鐵礦石價格指數在2月8日一度上沖至94.2美元/噸,較潰壩事故發生前75.4美元/噸上漲18.8美元/噸。隨著鐵礦石價格逐漸回歸理性,普氏鐵礦石價格指數仍較潰壩前高出8.7美元/噸。

標普全球普氏鐵礦石價格團隊高級分析師王楊雯向上證報記者透露,對于淡水河谷潰壩事故持續發酵,國內和國際的市場參與者作出了截然不同的反應。由于歐洲、日韓的鋼鐵生產企業的礦石配比和使用量大多比較固定,無法在短期內迅速調整配比,對高品鐵礦資源的依賴使海外鋼鐵企業受此次事故影響較大。

而數家國內大型鋼廠接受調研時表示,在過去的兩個月里持續調整高爐里的礦石配比,目前對巴西產的高品礦石的需求大幅下降。燒結礦需求不斷轉向主要來自澳洲的中低品位鐵礦石,最為明顯的表現是澳洲的FMG礦山出產的低品位礦石超特粉,其相對普氏62鐵礦石指數的折扣從2月的33%縮減至3月的16%,折扣縮減幅度超過50%,體現了中國買家對低品位礦石的購買需求。

王楊雯還表示,目前鋼廠毛利在200元/噸至400元/噸區間徘徊。作為巴西礦石的替代產品,國產鐵精粉近兩月產量有小幅增長的趨勢,給國內買家派了一劑定心丸。

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